In search of a hydrogen-driven acceleration towards net zero, could the phasing out of coal be at risk?

With the IEA reporting that half of coal project financiers have made no plans to limit their investment in coal-driven projects, ensuring that building a global, clean hydrogen market will require collaboration and a regulatory reform
Published
December 7, 2022

The potential for hydrogen within net zero efforts

In order to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, hydrogen is predicted to play a crucial role. Considered by many as the only long-term, scalable, and affordable alternative for profound decarbonisation in industries like steel, maritime, aviation, and ammonia, clean hydrogen (both renewable and low carbon) complements other decarbonisation technologies like renewable electricity, biofuels, or advances in energy efficiency. The deployment of hydrogen solutions in these areas is projected to have the potential to prevent 80 GT of cumulative CO2 emissions between now and 2050.[i] A major push for hydrogen has been launched by policymakers eager to meet net-zero emissions targets, particularly in the United States and the European Union. Low-carbon hydrogen prices are sometimes subsidised, and in other instances, tax credits are given to the sectors that create or consume hydrogen.  Investment in hydrogen projects is expanding, in part because of these financial incentives. The Brussels based industry group , the Hydrogen Council, predict that the hundreds of large-scale hydrogen projects that have already been announced might result in an investment of US$240 billion by 2030, even though only one-tenth of these transactions have been fully executed to date. According to the council, the market for hydrogen and hydrogen-related products will be worth $2.5 trillion annually by 2050.[ii] In the EU, the "hydrogen accelerator" under the REPowerEU plan envisions importing 10 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen and producing 10 million tonnes of domestic renewable hydrogen by 2030. It comprises steps to scale up the hydrogen infrastructure, which is heavily dependent on the installation of port infrastructure and renewable energy deployment, as well as its link to industrial and transportation customers. The Commission also outlines a number of initiatives in the plan to hasten the use of renewable hydrogen and its derivatives in hard-to-decarbonize industries, including transportation and manufacturing. For instance, it is predicted that by 2030, 30% of the primary steel produced in the EU might be decarbonised using renewable hydrogen.[iii]

Despite these high hopes and expectations, in 2021, only a small portion of the world’s hydrogen was produced using so-called green and blue processes that low emission compared to hydrogen produced using coal.


Source: Nature after IEA

As the IEA’s net zero emissions scenario indicates, by 2030, the amount of hydrogen produced using coal must decline, admittedly by a modest amount, but recent trends from China create doubt for a future hydrogen heyday. Although China produces more hydrogen than any other country, its generation now produces a lot of emissions. China produced about 33 Mt of hydrogen in 2020, representing 30% of the global amount. The main sources of today's hydrogen demand, the global chemical industry and China's considerable capacity for oil refining are the reasons for China's leadership. One-third of China's hydrogen production is powered by coal, which emitted roughly 360 Mt of CO2 in 2020. China is the only nation in the world to produce hydrogen from coal on a considerable scale.[iv] Whilst COP27 reaffirmed global commitments to phase down coal, will the pursuit of hydrogen production at scale hamper these efforts?[v]

Tackling coal use whilst realising the potential of hydrogen

Governments have increased coal use and imports of liquefied natural gas from other countries in response to impending energy problems related to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and related sanctions on Russia. Following a 14% increase in 2021, the International Energy Agency projects that Europe's coal consumption will rise by 7% in 2022.[vi] According to the IEA research, 50 out of 100 financial institutions that have funded coal-related projects since 2010 have not made any promises to limit such financing; this is a concerning prospect for the burgeoning hydrogen market as it seeks to build itself sustainably. Although many governments' policy responses to the current energy crisis are encouragingly moving toward growing renewable energy, according to IEA executive director Fatih Birol, "a major unresolved problem is how to deal with the massive amount of existing coal assets worldwide.".[vii] Progress is being made in some cases outside Europe; the rising awareness of climate change and the declining cost of renewable energy sources are driving global attempts to move away from coal. However, there are still substantial obstacles. According to research by Carbon Brief, policies need to be suited for the particular country setting if they are to increase the political viability of coal phaseouts. International activity can also influence domestic policy. Countries phasing out coal could use international agreements to strengthen the legitimacy of their goals, such as joining a "climate club" of forward-thinking leaders, issuing a joint statement under the G20's auspices, or including them in their climate commitments under the Paris Agreement. These nations are capable of providing both technical and financial support to nations with lower incomes and administrative and technological capacities.[viii]

In light of the continued monetary support for coal-related projects, policy priorities for the sustainable production of hydrogen are of high importance.

The Hydrogen Council policy priorities

The Hydrogen Council’s 2022 insights report provided the following policy priorities that could support global clean growth in hydrogen production.

  1. Adopt legally binding measures to enable demand visibility and regulatory certainty.  In addition to public procurement policies or competitive bidding for (carbon) contracts for difference, efforts like targets or quotas for hydrogen consumption across end-use industries can help make the need visible. This will close the cost competitiveness gap, increase investor confidence, and have a knock-on impact along the entire value chain, enabling investments in infrastructure, equipment manufacture, and hydrogen supply.[ix]
  2. Fast-track access to public funding for hydrogen projects. Introduce policies that include loans, grants, tax credits, and finance support programmes based on open bidding. Government officials from many regions have proposed measures to implement the necessary tools to promote hydrogen uptake. Now is the time to put the vision into practice and continue with the application of these tools. Rapid implementation of hydrogen assistance programmes will speed the deployment of hydrogen to fulfil global climate targets within this decade while driving costs even lower.[x]
  3. Ensure international coordination and support credible common standards and robust tradeable certification systems. To enable hydrogen with the lowest carbon footprint to demonstrate its climatic advantages, a universal standard technique for evaluating all hydrogen production methods is required. Strong certification systems are essential for fostering customer confidence and opening the door to international hydrogen trade, which will help scale up and lower the cost of hydrogen.[xi]

References

[i] Hydrogen Council- Global Hydrogen Flows: Hydrogen trade as a key enabler for efficient decarbonization

[ii] Nature- How the hydrogen revolution can help save the planet — and how it can’t

[iii] European Commission- In focus: Renewable hydrogen to decarbonise the EU’s energy system

[iv] IEA- Opportunities for Hydrogen Production with CCUS in China

[v] The Guardian- Second draft of Cop27 text: what has changed since the first draft?

[vi] Euractiv- Europe should shape the green hydrogen market now

[vii] Financial times- Climate graphic of the week: Will the world phase down coal within 8 years?

[viii] Carbon Brief- Guest post: What we learned about coal phaseout by studying 15 countries

[ix] Hydrogen Council- Hydrogen Insights 2022 An updated perspective on hydrogen market development and actions required to unlock hydrogen at scale

[x] Ibid

[xi] Ibid

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Oscar Pusey
Research Analyst

Oscar is a recent graduate with a background in earth science. He is currently studying an MSc focussing on disaster responses, emergency planning and community resilience. His postgraduate research project will assess the link between climate crisis risk perception and attitudes to green energy projects. “Adapting to the climate crisis through the pursuit of net zero requires community engagement and understanding. Zero Carbon Academy’s goals closely align with this approach and I’m excited to have the opportunity to research and communicate a variety of topics relating to our environment and sustainability”.

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