The leaders of the largest economies in the world have approved initiatives to treble the amount of renewable energy produced by 2030 but have failed to agree on a pledge to phase out fossil fuels.

G20 meeting sees a renewable energy agreement

Together, the G20 members account for more than 75 per cent of global emissions and GDP, thus a concerted effort by the group to decarbonize is essential in the battle to combat climate change globally. The key development involved renewable energy. In the final version, it is stated that by 2030, "efforts to triple renewable energy capacity" will be pursued and encouraged. According to the International Energy Agency, achieving that aim is essential to achieving the objective of keeping the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C within reach.[i]

Amitabh Kant, India’s lead negotiator, cut a jubilant figure during the press briefing, praising the pact as the "most ambitious document on climate action" to date, but others were less impressed as the meeting failed to agree upon a phase out of fossil fuels. Harjeet Singh, head of global political strategy at Climate Action Network (CAN) said:

“While the G20’s commitment to renewable energy targets is commendable, it sidesteps the root cause - our global dependency on fossil fuels,”[ii]

Despite the fact that burning fossil fuels is the main cause of human-caused global warming, the G20 leaders' declaration made no mention of the phase-out of oil and gas. They avoided making any mention of phase-outs for all polluting fuels, committing merely to a "phasedown" of coal "in line with national circumstances". According to the United Nations, the action is "indispensable" in light of the efforts made by over 200 nations to cut back on greenhouse gas emissions. The world was judged to be far off course to reach the Paris Agreement's aims to limit global warming to 2C, or ideally 1.5C over pre-industrial levels, in the first-ever "global stock take" conducted by the UN and thus every delay to a fossil fuel phase out only heightens the risk of failing to meet targets. [iii]

Is this G20 meeting a sign of things to come at COP28?

As geopolitical tensions rise, focus will now shift to whether nations can reach an agreement on a phase-out of all fossil fuels at COP28- the UN climate meeting scheduled to take place at the end of the year in Dubai. During meetings of G20 climate and energy ministers in July, efforts by economies dependent on fossil fuels to thwart an agreement on the end of fossil fuels were led by Saudi Arabia and China. The Financial Times reports that people with knowledge of the conversations claimed that Saudi Arabia objected to a renewable energy objective and called instead for stronger promotion of carbon capture and storage technologies, which would allow for the continuation of oil and gas production.[iv]

According to climate chief Frans Timmermans, the EU is advocating for a global commitment to phase out the continued use of fossil fuels "well ahead of 2050" at COP28. At a gathering of the EU's energy and environment ministers, he stated that he wanted to persuade nations to sign up for two related components of this pledge. The first is that between now and 2030, the yearly deployment of new renewable energy must triple. Second, he stated that the rate of improvement in energy efficiency must be doubled globally compared to the previous ten years.[v]

Clearly, the G20 meeting and subsequent agreement to triple renewable energy capacity shows that at least one prong of this trident like approach from the EU could be met with support from the global community. However, its overriding goal to phase out fossil fuels entirely may not have the support needed to be part of a global agreement at COP. Despite this, the further prong of increasing energy efficiency, combined with an increase in renewables, could function as the foundation of a fossil fuel phase out agreement in the near future. By achieving reduced demand and increased energy capacity, this could nullify the current complaint that a phase out of fossil fuels risks removing what is presently seen as continuous and reliable energy supply, thus removing fears over energy security.