ECIU research finds major milestone reached
New research has found that an expanding share of the world economy is cutting CO2 emissions while continuing to grow. This means that the idea of decoupling economic growth from carbon emissions is no longer theoretical and it is happening at scale.
The analysis, which was carried out by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), was undertaken to mark the 10th anniversary of the Paris Agreement[i]. The researchers studied Global Carbon Budget data for 113 countries, which when taken together represent 97% of global GDP and 93% of global emissions.
From this data the analysts found that economies responsible for 92% of global GDP and 89% of global emissions have absolutely, or relatively, decoupled CO2 emissions from growth. This is up from 77% for both metrics in the decade before the Paris Agreement (2006–2015). Further, the number of countries achieving absolute decoupling rose from 32 pre-Paris to 43 post-Paris, while those achieving relative decoupling rose from 35 to 40.
Absolute decoupling is defined by the ECIU as occurring when emissions are declining even as the economy expands, whereas relative decoupling means emissions are still increasing, but at a slower rate than economic growth.
Decoupling ‘now the norm, not the exception’
This decoupling is now taking place on a global scale- while the report shows widespread decoupling across Europe and North America, the global south is also represented too. Several South American and Southern African economies show a significant turnaround; that is moving from emissions rising faster than GDP, to absolute decoupling with emissions falling as their economies expand. This includes Brazil, Colombia, Egypt, Jordan and Mozambique.
Looking elsewhere, the US and the EU fall into the category of absolute decoupling, while India and China show relative decoupling- with China’s emissions growing far more slowly than GDP over the 2015–2023 period. Some of the largest proportional emissions reductions were recorded in Western Europe, including Norway, Switzerland and the UK. These are among a cohort of over 20 global economies which have consistently demonstrated absolute decoupling over the past two decades.
John Lang, report author and Net Zero Tracker Lead at ECIU, explains:
“Decoupling is now the norm, not the exception — and the share of the global economy that is decoupling emissions in an absolute sense is steadily increasing. Of course, global totals matter most and CO₂ emissions continue to rise, though at a far slower rate than 10 years ago”[ii].
He continues: “Under the hood, the structural shift is unmistakable. More countries are bending their curves, and crucially, China’s CO2 emissions have been flat for 18 months and may have peaked.”
Commenting on the findings, Gareth Redmond-King, Head of International at ECIU, adds: “The momentum built by the Paris Agreement is unstoppable – the economic realities make it so. Solutions like solar power have outperformed pre-Paris predictions many times over, as costs have plummeted and investment in clean energy outstrips that in fossil fuels by two to one. More people are employed globally in clean energy than fossil fuels, whilst at home the net zero industries grow three times faster than the economy as a whole”[iii].
References
[i] Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | 10 Years Post-Paris: How…
[ii] Energy & Climate Intelligence Unit | 92% of the global economy is…
[iii] Ibid
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