Europe’s waste could supply over half of critical material demand by 2050

Europe’s ‘urban mine’ of critical raw materials

Europe is sitting on an urban mine of precious metals and minerals, according to new research. Data from the FutuRaM project shows that by 2050, waste recovery systems could help Europe reclaim between 4.1 and 5.7 million tonnes of CRMs (Critical Raw Materials)[i].

CRMs include many strategically important materials such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements. However, despite being critical components in many modern technologies such as smartphones, batteries, and clean technologies, they are largely lost during collection and waste processing at present.

Addressing the issue

In their study FutuRaM researchers assessed seven major waste streams to map out the landscape for the potential recovery of 42 different CRMs, these streams were:

· Waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE)

· Waste batteries

· End-of-life vehicles

· Construction and demolition waste from buildings

· Slags and ashes from industrial processes

· Mining waste

· Dismantled wind turbines

The research found that in 2022, 5.2 million tonnes of CRMs embedded in products were placed on the market, compared to 2.1 million tonnes embedded in waste and 1.4 million tonnes recovered, highlighting both the scale of material in use, and the gap between consumption and recovery. Looking ahead, by 2050 CRMs in products placed on the market could rise to between 8.4 and 12.2 million tonnes annually, with waste generation reaching between 5.2 to 6.4 million tonnes. In contrast, recovery could reach 4.7 to 5.7 million tonnes, therefore underscoring the growing strategic importance of recycling systems.

Five of the analysed CRMs – including platinum, and rhodium –were found to have recovery rates of over 80% thanks largely to well-established collection and processing routes. Eight others, including aluminium, copper, palladium, and nickel fell within the 40–80% range, where collection and treatment infrastructure is in place, but losses remain significant. For 22 CRMs, recovery yields were found to equal less than one tonne per year across Europe, with most rare earth elements falling into this category.

According to the report, within 24 years some 17 CRMs, including cobalt, lithium, and rare earth metals such as dysprosium and neodymium, could achieve recovery rates above 80%, that’s if the right legislative and industrial choices are made now. The researchers also note that the volume of products containing CRMs is expected to grow sharply as electrification, renewable energy deployment, and digitalisation accelerate. This growth ultimately leads to an increase in the number of CRMs that could be recovered in the future.

FutuRaM note that some of the most valuable materials are the least likely to pass through formal recycling systems as the market value of elements such as gold drives diversion of products into informal and often untracked flows.

Findings from the project suggest that if recovery can be improved, then secondary resources could act as a substitute for as much as between 33% and 56% of primary materials. This potential ranges from up to 33% under business-as-usual conditions, up to 47% with improved recovery systems, and 56% under a circular economy scenario.

This would significantly reduce European reliance on imported materials and strengthen supply security for key technologies such as batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable solar and wind energy.

The project data is now available through the Urban Mine Platform (urbanmineplatform.eu), a digital tool that helps visualise the availability of CRMs across Europe’s waste streams[ii].

Policy recommendations

To address the current recovery issues, the FutuRaM researchers suggest the following:

· Establish a harmonised EU framework for secondary raw materials reporting and classification.

· Institutionalise the Urban Mine Platform as core EU data infrastructure to create a trusted source of data to support monitoring, investment planning, and regulatory implementation.

· Apply the UNFC classification system to secondary resources. Extending this globally recognised framework to recycling projects would improve transparency, comparability, and confidence for investors and policymakers.

· Strengthen enforcement and monitoring of illegal waste flows.

· Support long-term scenario modelling for strategic planning.

· Invest in skills, awareness, and recycling capacity across value chains.