COP30 closes with a ‘climate compromise’: climate finance advances, but fossil fuel phase-out is sidestepped

Fraught COP30 ends with a ‘climate compromise’

Despite over-running, COP30 finished with a climate compromise reached, including an increase in climate finance to $1.3 trillion by 2035, and a major boost to adaptation funding. Yet the deal made no mention of plans for a fossil-fuel phase out, instead what followed was the Brazilian Presidency’s concept of roadmaps set to exist outside of the COP, their legal standing unclear.

Key features of the COP30 deal

Following a 12-hour overnight session during which talks teetered on the verge of collapse, Brazil announced a finalised deal on Saturday. Key components of the deal include the mobilisation of at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for climate action, alongside tripling adaptation finance and operationalising the loss and damage fund agreed at COP28. In addition, the deal launches two major initiatives – the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5°C – to help countries deliver on their nationally determined contributions (NDCs), or national climate action plans, and adaptation plans[i].

In summary, the deal includes:

· Finance at scale: Mobilise $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 for climate action.

· Adaptation boost: Double adaptation finance by 2025 and triple by 2035.

· Loss and damage fund: Operationalisation and replenishment cycles confirmed.

· New initiatives: Launch of the Global Implementation Accelerator and Belém Mission to 1.5°C to drive ambition and implementation.

· Climate disinformation: Commitment to promote information integrity and counter false narratives.

However, as noted above the big disappointment was the failure to agree upon a roadmap for fossil fuel phase out, where plans for a transition had backing from least 80 countries. Despite several European nations, such as the UK and Germany, as well as oil-rich Sierra Leone, and coal-major Colombia supporting the plans, they were derailed by numerous fossil fuel reliant economies including Russia and members of the Arab negotiating group. The plan would have formed the logical next step following agreement on a phase-out target set at COP28 in 2023.

COP30 deal delivers a mixed reaction

The COP30 deal is being described as fragile but forward moving. Whilst it secures more money for vulnerable nations and provides symbolic roadmaps, it leaves the central issue of fossil fuel phase-out unresolved. COP30 President André Corrêa do Lago acknowledged this, in a statement he said:

“We know some of you had greater ambitions for some of the issues at hand. I know the youth civil society will demand us to do more to fight climate change. I want to reaffirm that I will try not to disappoint you during my presidency.”[ii]

To address the lack of consensus on fossil fuels and forests, Brazil came up with the idea of additional plans that will sit outside of the COP. Corrêa do Lago explained that the presidency would publish “roadmaps” one to halt and reverse deforestation; and another to transition away from fossil fuels, mobilising resources for these purposes in a “just and planned manner.”[iii] Whilst this concept was applauded at the time, its legal standing remains unclear.

Unsurprisingly, many delegates voiced frustration in response to the deal, while others emphasised unity and incremental progress. Wopke Hoekstra, the European Union’s climate commissioner, said the outcome was a step in the right direction, but the bloc would have liked more: “We’re not going to hide the fact that we would have preferred to have more, to have more ambition on everything, we should support it because at least it is going in the right direction,”[iv] He said.

In a social media post, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla said that while the outcome “fell short of expectations”, COP30 demonstrated the importance of multilateralism to tackle global challenges such as climate change[v].

UN Secretary-General António Guterres stated: “I cannot pretend that COP30 has delivered everything that is needed. The gap between where we are and what science demands remains dangerously wide. I understand many may feel disappointed – especially young people, Indigenous Peoples and those living through climate chaos. The reality of overshoot is a stark warning: we are approaching dangerous and irreversible tipping points. Staying below 1.5 degrees by the end of the century must remain humanity’s red line”.